News broke yesterday that a Google exec admitted out loud and on stage at an industry event that it is losing search share among younger consumers to rivals TikTok and Instagram.

As we were discussing this on Slack, we joked that the Google comms team must be staring daggers at Prabhakar Raghavan. He’s the Google SVP who spilled the beans at Fortune’s Brainstorm Tech 2022 Conference, as reported originally by TechCrunch.

Raghavan, who is head of Google’s Knowledge & Information organization, told the conference audience that as much as 40% of young people would turn to TikTok or Instagram over Google or Google Maps when looking for a lunch reservation.

According to TechCrunch, the remark seemed more offhand than planned. Still, it’s possible that Google wants to control the narrative and get this message out before it shows up in other data. He appeared to be making a broader point about the fact that younger consumers are less driven by keyword-based search than by discovery. And TikTok and Instagram are definitely discovery platforms.

He also shared the remark in the context of discussing Google’s use of AI and its evolving product strategy. And evolve it must if this data foretells a rapid erosion of Google’s search dominance. Raghavan was reportedly sharing internal Google data that has not yet been released to the public. Another eye-opening nugget was that 55% of product searches begin on Amazon. 

Still, this is one of those revelations that falls under the category of “shocking but perhaps not surprising.” After all, TikTok is far and away the fastest growing app (as measured by downloads. The short video platform surpassed 1 billion global users last year. 

And TikTok’s rapid rise in popularity among younger consumers is no big secret. And the evolution of younger consumers to a preference for discovery and immersive experiences has also been widely discussed. But 40%? Just wow.

TikTok Continues World Domination

Slowing Growth Ahead?

Is it possible that TikTok faces slowing growth among younger consumers? That’s the argument that Blair Currie makes in a Forbes Council post published today. It’s important to note that Currie is CEO of Snibble, which he describes as a “next-generation social video platform.” 

In his post, Currie argues that several trends are pushing up against TikTok’s continued rapid growth among younger consumers. Here are a few examples.

Only so much time in the day. Currie cites Deloitte’s Digital Media Trends Survey showing that engaging with social media platforms is relatively far down the list of leisure activities for GenZ consumers at 11%. Higher on the list are video games (26%), listening to music (14%), and internet browsing (13%). Add a full night’s sleep and there isn’t much time left in the day for usage growth. 

Growing Rebellion. He also says (without citing data) that a growing number GenZers are pushing back on TikTok as a massive waste of time. Interesting. But where’s the evidence of this?

Grandma’s on TikTok. Perhaps Currie’s most compelling point is that older people are joining TikTok. We all know that nothing chased young people off of Facebook faster than when their parents, let alone their grandparents, started using it. 

Is Currie right? Well, the success of his business likely depends on it. So while interesting, many of his points are really assertions that feel true. But he offers no supporting evidence for many of his points. At this point at least, Google’s data tell a more convincing story. And that story suggests TikTok’s ascendance may just be getting started.